Michael Burry Says He's Tempted to Short SpaceX — Then Passes

The investor who called the housing crisis sees something worth watching in Musk's rocket company. He just doesn't think it's worth the trade.

Written by Elise Mercer · Bureau Finance · Jun 20, 2026

The Trade He Didn't Make

Michael Burry, the investor whose subprime mortgage short was immortalized in *The Big Short*, disclosed this week that he has considered betting against SpaceX — and then decided against it. "I am not involved with SpaceX now. Neither short nor, ahem, long," he wrote, in a post that managed to be both a disclosure and a raised eyebrow in roughly equal measure.

The "ahem" before "long" is doing real work there. Burry isn't just saying he passed on a short. He's signaling that going long at current private-market prices would require a set of assumptions he finds at least as uncomfortable.

What 'Fundamentally a Small Space Company' Actually Means

Burry's description of SpaceX as "fundamentally a small space company" is the kind of phrase that sounds mild until you hold it next to the valuation. SpaceX has been reported at private-market valuations exceeding $350 billion in recent secondary transactions — a figure that implies a business of extraordinary scale and durability.

To justify that number, you need SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service to become a dominant global broadband provider, its launch business to maintain pricing power against emerging competitors, and its longer-horizon bets — Mars colonization, point-to-point Earth travel — to eventually contribute real revenue. None of those outcomes are impossible. But they are assumptions, not facts, and Burry's framing is a reminder that the underlying operating business, measured today, is considerably smaller than the narrative.

Why Shorting SpaceX Is Structurally Hard

Burry's reluctance isn't purely a valuation call. SpaceX is private, which means there is no listed equity to borrow and sell short in the conventional sense. A bearish position would require derivatives or options tied to secondary-market instruments — a trade that is expensive to construct, difficult to size, and subject to the particular cruelty of private-market timing: a company can stay overvalued on paper for years without a catalyst to correct it.

This is a structural feature of late-stage private markets that often gets underweighted in valuation debates. Being right about fundamentals and being right about timing are two different problems, and in private markets, the second problem is significantly harder. Burry, who held his mortgage shorts through years of painful mark-to-market losses before they paid off, presumably understands this dynamic better than most.

What the Signal Actually Is

The more interesting read on Burry's comment isn't the trade he passed on — it's the fact that he's thinking about it publicly at all. Short-sellers don't typically telegraph temptation without reason. The disclosure suggests that SpaceX's private valuation has reached a level where sophisticated investors are actively modeling a bearish case, even if the structural barriers to executing that case remain high.

For anyone watching SpaceX's eventual path to liquidity — whether through a direct listing, an IPO, or continued secondary-market activity — Burry's ambivalence is worth filing away. It's not a prediction. It's a data point about where informed skepticism is starting to accumulate.

Key takeaways

Burry stated he is 'not involved with SpaceX now' — neither short nor long — after disclosing he was 'tempted' to bet against it.
His characterization of SpaceX as 'fundamentally a small space company' is a pointed framing given the company's reported private valuation, which runs well into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
The comment highlights a growing tension between SpaceX's narrative valuation and its underlying revenue base, which remains concentrated in launch services and Starlink subscriptions.
Because SpaceX is private, a short position would require options or derivatives on secondary-market instruments — a structurally difficult and expensive trade, which may partly explain Burry's reluctance.
Burry's public ambivalence is itself a market signal: when a short-seller known for conviction says a trade is tempting but not enticing enough, the implied message is that the risk-reward doesn't yet justify the cost of being early.

FAQ

Does Michael Burry currently have a short position in SpaceX?

No. Burry stated explicitly that he is 'not involved with SpaceX now. Neither short nor, ahem, long.' He disclosed being tempted to short the company but said it was not enticing enough.

Why is it difficult to short a private company like SpaceX?

Because there is no publicly listed equity to borrow and sell short in the traditional sense. A bearish bet on a private company typically requires derivatives or options linked to secondary-market instruments, which are expensive to construct, hard to size, and subject to unpredictable timing — a private company can remain highly valued on paper for years without a liquidity event to force a correction.

What did Burry mean by calling SpaceX 'fundamentally a small space company'?

It's a framing device that invites comparison between SpaceX's current operating business — primarily launch services and Starlink subscriptions — and the assumptions required to justify its reported private-market valuation of over $350 billion. Burry is not saying the company is unimportant; he's saying the valuation requires a lot of future outcomes to go right.

Is SpaceX publicly traded?

No. SpaceX remains a private company as of mid-2026. Shares trade on secondary markets, but there is no public listing. Any IPO or direct listing timeline has not been officially confirmed by the company.

Why does Burry's public comment matter if he isn't making the trade?

Because it signals where informed skepticism is beginning to concentrate. When a short-seller with Burry's track record describes a trade as tempting but not yet worth it, the implied message is that the risk-reward calculus is close enough to be worth monitoring — particularly as SpaceX approaches any potential liquidity event.